Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNCO -200 IDST +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +7 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCO -3.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -2.3 (-9.3) | 149.5 (+9.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -1.7 (-8.7) | 145.2 (+13.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -2.7 (-9.7) | 148.4 (+10.6) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -2.9 (-9.9) | 150.5 (+8.5) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | UNCO 69 – 61 IDST |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UNCO 85 – 72 IDST |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UNCO 86 – 72 IDST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCO 93 – 92 IDST |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNCO 81 – 79 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#198) | -5.0 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#162) | -0.98 (#277) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#172) | -1.03 (#263) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#158) | 0.432 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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