Betting Lines
| Spread | JMU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | JMU -250 ARST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JMU +20 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | JMU -7.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JMU -6.3 (+13.7) | 153.4 (+8.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JMU -6.5 (+13.5) | 150.5 (+11.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JMU -6.1 (+13.9) | 151.7 (+10.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JMU -6.5 (+13.5) | 151.0 (+11.0) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2026 | JMU 78 – 74 ARST |
| Jan 4, 2025 | JMU 67 – 62 ARST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | JMU 77 – 73 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JMU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-4 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 12-2 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#63) | 1.7 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.00 (#38) | 0.20 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#48) | 0.38 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#65) | 0.518 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JMU | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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