Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -175 AAMU +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +12 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -4.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -4.3 (-16.3) | 142.7 (-4.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -4.0 (-16.0) | 141.5 (-3.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -3.6 (-15.6) | 143.9 (-5.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -3.1 (-15.1) | 141.6 (-3.6) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ALCN 64 – 62 AAMU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ALCN 62 – 52 AAMU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 71 AAMU |
| Jan 7, 2023 | ALCN 89 – 76 AAMU |
| Mar 12, 2022 | ALCN 69 – 64 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 7-14 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#304) | -12.6 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#252) | -1.61 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#263) | -2.17 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#190) | 0.433 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 22.7% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 34.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 35.0% |
Game Analysis
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