Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | CAL -1600 CP +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +18 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -12.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -12.5 (+5.5) | 149.9 (+14.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -9.4 (+8.6) | 149.1 (+14.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 83.4 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#156) | 3.3 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#44) | -0.31 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#92) | -0.37 (#166) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 39.5% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 54.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 37.1% |
Game Analysis
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