Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | LT -450 MTSU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | LT -12.8 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (+8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -10.0 (-13.0) | 133.1 (+3.9) | 83% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -9.1 (-12.1) | 133.7 (+3.3) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -10.5 (-13.5) | 132.2 (+4.8) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LT -10.1 (-13.1) | 133.3 (+3.7) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | LT 80 – 69 MTSU |
| Jan 15, 2026 | LT 59 – 58 MTSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | MTSU 88 – 51 LT |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MTSU 77 – 75 LT |
| Feb 21, 2025 | LT 85 – 74 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#92) | -6.6 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#101) | -0.68 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#95) | -0.79 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#57) | 0.456 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LT | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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