Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -145 SBU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | SBU -2.1 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.8 (+25.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -3.6 (-0.4) | 124.5 (+19.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -1.9 (-2.1) | 127.6 (+16.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -2.8 (-1.2) | 126.0 (+18.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -3.1 (-0.9) | 125.9 (+18.1) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#82) | 8.3 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.15 (#87) | 2.61 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#92) | 3.68 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#49) | 0.581 (#58) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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