Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -700 TCU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +15 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -10.3 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -8.2 (+6.8) | 136.6 (-31.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -7.6 (+7.4) | 133.2 (-28.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -9.3 (+5.7) | 138.3 (-33.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -9.0 (+6.0) | 138.3 (-33.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | HOU 79 – 70 TCU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | HOU 65 – 46 TCU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | TCU 68 – 67 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-5 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 12-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 23.9 (#1) | 13.6 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.84 (#2) | 1.92 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.67 (#1) | 2.35 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.660 (#2) | 0.547 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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