Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | DUQ +130 TOW -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +18 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -2.2 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -1.7 (+19.7) | 127.3 (-15.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -0.4 (+18.4) | 127.3 (-15.3) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -1.3 (+19.3) | 128.5 (-16.5) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -1.8 (+19.8) | 128.1 (-16.1) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#277) | -3.9 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#334) | -0.58 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.24 (#303) | -1.28 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#332) | 0.523 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 37.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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