Betting Lines
| Spread | UALB -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UALB -145 DREX +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +7 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UALB -2.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UALB -3.3 (-10.3) | 144.5 (+2.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UALB -0.9 (-7.9) | 141.0 (+6.0) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UALB -2.8 (-9.8) | 144.1 (+2.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UALB -2.6 (-9.6) | 145.1 (+1.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | DREX 71 – 52 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#236) | -1.8 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#189) | -0.56 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#187) | -1.03 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#196) | 0.449 (#263) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 28.7 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 33.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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