Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CSU +240 VCU -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -7.9 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -6.0 (-2.0) | 135.9 (+8.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -4.6 (-3.4) | 136.1 (+7.9) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -4.8 (-3.2) | 138.1 (+5.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -5.3 (-2.7) | 136.0 (+8.0) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-4 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 63.0 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#136) | 9.6 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.41 (#142) | 0.45 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#137) | 0.73 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#173) | 0.528 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 41.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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