Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Under |
| Money | UVA +125 CSU -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +25 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -3.2 (-21.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -3.2 (-21.8) | 123.5 (-14.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -3.1 (-21.9) | 119.0 (-10.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -4.4 (-20.6) | 122.7 (-13.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -2.9 (-22.1) | 125.0 (-16.0) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.8 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#69) | 11.8 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#38) | 2.17 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#53) | 2.72 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#41) | 0.597 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.86 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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