And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Stegeman Coliseum · March 19, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UGA -1.5 Home covered
O/U 158.5 Under
Money UGA -125 / XAV +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total UGA win
Actual UGA +2 154 Won
Massey XAV -0.2 (+2.2) — —
Massey Totals — 150.6 (+3.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 64% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 56% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ XAV -0.1 (+2.1) 149.8 (+4.2) 48% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML UGA -1.3 (+0.7) 146.6 (+7.4) 57% ✓
Baseline ML UGA -1.7 (+0.3) 148.0 (+6.0) 53% ✓
Baseline Plus ML UGA -1.2 (+0.8) 149.2 (+4.8) 52% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 22, 2025 UGA 78 – 77 XAV

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UGA XAV
Overall 20-17 16-18
Conference 6-12 9-11
Home 13-6 11-7
Away 6-6 3-9
Neutral 1-5 2-2
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 74.7 75.9
Avg Pts Against 74.7 74.6
Massey 6.1 (#93) 9.5 (#57)
Bradley-Terry 1.13 (#90) 1.15 (#89)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.37 (#91) 1.80 (#68)
RPI 0.527 (#117) 0.537 (#105)
Shooting & Four Factors UGA XAV
FG% 42.9% 43.5%
3PT% 33.6% 34.0%
REB / G 35.6 38.1
OREB / G 10.0 11.9
AST / TO 1.03 1.41
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.7% 49.0%
TOV% 16.0% 16.2%
ORB% 27.5% 32.1%
FT Rate 27.8% 23.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.8% 49.6%
Opp TOV% 16.3% 16.2%
DRB% 69.2% 71.0%
Opp FT Rate 21.7% 21.5%

Game Analysis

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