Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TAR -275 ACU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +27 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -7.9 (+19.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -7.1 (+19.9) | 141.1 (+3.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -7.2 (+19.8) | 142.6 (+2.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -7.3 (+19.7) | 142.5 (+2.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -6.9 (+20.1) | 142.5 (+2.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | ACU 84 – 78 TAR |
| Feb 17, 2026 | TAR 65 – 62 ACU |
| Feb 14, 2026 | ACU 73 – 59 TAR |
| Jan 9, 2026 | ACU 84 – 80 TAR |
| Feb 28, 2025 | TAR 67 – 52 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-5 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 73.7 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#143) | -3.2 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#91) | -0.30 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#103) | -0.31 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#75) | 0.470 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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