Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | INST -333 SMU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +9 | 193 | Won |
| Massey | INST -6.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+38.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -8.0 (+1.0) | 152.3 (+40.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -7.1 (+1.9) | 153.4 (+39.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -8.0 (+1.0) | 152.5 (+40.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -7.7 (+1.3) | 153.8 (+39.2) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-3 |
| Away | 9-4 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#33) | 9.3 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#27) | 0.89 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#34) | 1.34 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#42) | 0.533 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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