Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -450 VCU +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +9 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -8.0 (-17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -5.0 (-14.0) | 129.3 (+1.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -6.5 (-15.5) | 130.0 (+1.0) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -5.5 (-14.5) | 131.5 (-0.5) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -7.1 (-16.1) | 130.7 (+0.3) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 24-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 13-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#42) | 7.2 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#80) | 1.25 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#62) | 1.52 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#90) | 0.561 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | VCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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