Betting Lines
| Spread | QUIN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | EVAN +163 QUIN -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EVAN +1 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | QUIN -2.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | QUIN -3.8 (+4.8) | 143.4 (-16.4) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | QUIN -3.5 (+4.5) | 143.0 (-16.0) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | QUIN -3.3 (+4.3) | 144.8 (-17.8) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | QUIN -3.2 (+4.2) | 144.1 (-17.1) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#215) | -0.5 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#173) | 0.25 (#145) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#177) | 0.07 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#196) | 0.524 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | QUIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.5% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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