Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | CLE +155 HPU -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +19 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -4.7 (-14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -3.0 (-16.0) | 151.1 (+15.9) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -3.7 (-15.3) | 151.6 (+15.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -3.3 (-15.7) | 153.0 (+14.0) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -3.0 (-16.0) | 153.0 (+14.0) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 6-10 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 82.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#183) | 3.4 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#162) | 0.71 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#178) | 1.09 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#134) | 0.538 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 34.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 65.3% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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