Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | ARST +110 HPU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +1 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -2.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -1.9 (+0.9) | 158.1 (+2.9) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -1.8 (+0.8) | 156.5 (+4.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -1.7 (+0.7) | 158.7 (+2.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -2.0 (+1.0) | 158.9 (+2.1) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-3 |
| Home | 10-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 82.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#147) | 3.9 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#142) | 0.78 (#111) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#136) | 1.17 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#132) | 0.543 (#93) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 34.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.