Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | INST -225 CIN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | INST -2.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -3.6 (+0.4) | 150.0 (+16.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -2.3 (+1.7) | 151.3 (+14.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -5.3 (-1.3) | 151.6 (+14.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -4.3 (-0.3) | 152.1 (+13.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 16-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#32) | 13.0 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.23 (#23) | 1.58 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#32) | 2.05 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#38) | 0.556 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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