Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | NORF +105 PFW -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -2.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -0.1 (+8.1) | 142.4 (-0.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -0.8 (+7.2) | 141.0 (+1.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -0.2 (+8.2) | 143.4 (-1.4) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -0.6 (+8.6) | 144.4 (-2.4) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-5 |
| Away | 6-8 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 72.9 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#238) | 1.6 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#201) | 0.20 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#211) | 0.06 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#167) | 0.500 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.