Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NU -290 GT +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +11 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | NU -6.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -6.9 (+4.1) | 136.0 (-5.0) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -6.8 (+4.2) | 136.0 (-5.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -7.0 (+4.0) | 139.2 (-8.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -6.2 (+4.8) | 136.3 (-5.3) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#64) | 1.9 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#81) | -0.96 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#55) | -1.52 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#68) | 0.440 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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