Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | USI +400 SIU -600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +18 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | USI -4.6 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -0.8 (+17.2) | 146.9 (-22.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -1.2 (+16.8) | 144.0 (-20.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USI -1.5 (+16.5) | 144.6 (-20.6) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | SIU 73 – 70 USI |
| Dec 23, 2023 | SIU 81 – 50 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 61.7 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#150) | 8.2 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#229) | 2.35 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#201) | 2.77 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#99) | 1.000 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 50.0% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.8% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 26.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 13.2% |
Game Analysis
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