Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 167.5 Over |
| Money | UNC +145 FLA -170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +6 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -3.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -5.7 (-0.3) | 157.9 (+16.1) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -3.9 (-2.1) | 159.5 (+14.5) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -6.2 (+0.2) | 158.7 (+15.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -5.6 (-0.4) | 157.5 (+16.5) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 36-4 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 14-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W12 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 84.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 14.4 (#27) | 18.0 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#52) | 4.51 (#1) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.77 (#53) | 6.30 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#23) | 0.681 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 43.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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