Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -250 MRMK +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +19 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -10.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (-28.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -7.9 (+11.1) | 150.9 (-23.9) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -10.1 (+8.9) | 148.2 (-21.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -7.1 (+11.9) | 147.4 (-20.4) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2024 | MRMK 72 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W11 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#83) | -5.1 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#62) | -0.25 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#71) | -0.22 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#235) | 0.583 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 20.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 43.1% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 24.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.7% | 64.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.1% | 33.7% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 52.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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