Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | FSU -800 WIN +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +18 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -13.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (-11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -14.6 (+3.4) | 152.9 (-6.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -12.1 (+5.9) | 157.2 (-11.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -13.9 (+4.1) | 155.6 (-9.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -14.2 (+3.8) | 153.5 (-7.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 23, 2023 | FSU 67 – 61 WIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-5 |
| Home | 11-5 | 16-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 82.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 79.8 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#70) | -0.8 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#74) | 0.14 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#82) | 0.17 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#70) | 0.487 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 27.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 36.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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