Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MSST -6000 CMU +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSST +24 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -13.8 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -12.0 (+12.0) | 145.2 (-3.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -14.3 (+9.7) | 144.2 (-2.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -12.8 (+11.2) | 145.5 (-3.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -11.7 (+12.3) | 146.2 (-4.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 14.8 (#22) | 0.9 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.88 (#21) | -0.32 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.01 (#18) | -0.39 (#198) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#32) | 0.514 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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