Betting Lines
| Spread | BOIS -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | BOIS -20000 TXSO +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BOIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BOIS +31 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | BOIS -23.7 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BOIS -19.1 (+11.9) | 151.1 (-18.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BOIS -22.4 (+8.6) | 148.3 (-15.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BOIS -22.4 (+8.6) | 150.8 (-17.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BOIS -21.6 (+9.4) | 150.8 (-17.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BOIS | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.0 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#56) | -9.6 (#323) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#64) | -2.51 (#340) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.42 (#61) | -3.64 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#45) | 0.431 (#290) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BOIS | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 56.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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