Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | ORST -6000 SAC +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +37 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | ORST -25.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -21.6 (+15.4) | 132.0 (-5.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -20.8 (+16.2) | 128.4 (-1.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -24.4 (+12.6) | 128.6 (-1.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ORST -23.3 (+13.7) | 130.8 (-3.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-11 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#46) | -9.3 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#59) | -2.78 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#47) | -4.41 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#93) | 0.354 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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