Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA -200 UNM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +8 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | UCLA -12.3 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.8 (-30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -7.7 (-15.7) | 141.8 (-5.8) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -5.8 (-13.8) | 145.7 (-9.7) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 17-3 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#25) | -3.1 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#37) | 0.38 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#36) | 0.45 (#121) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.3% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 19.4% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 50.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 18.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.33 | 2.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 9.3% |
| ORB% | 42.9% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 10.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 35.7% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 7.9% | 12.5% |
Game Analysis
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