Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | OU +165 MICH -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +1 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -4.1 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -0.8 (+1.8) | 146.0 (+27.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -0.4 (+1.4) | 146.3 (+26.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -0.2 (+1.2) | 145.7 (+27.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -1.8 (+2.8) | 146.0 (+27.0) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#49) | 14.9 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.58 (#7) | 2.36 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.10 (#7) | 3.57 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#50) | 0.641 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OU | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 58.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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