Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -280 FGCU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +13 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -3.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -4.2 (+8.8) | 139.6 (+5.4) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -5.1 (+7.9) | 138.8 (+6.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -4.1 (+8.9) | 137.5 (+7.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -4.2 (+8.8) | 138.4 (+6.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | UNCW 71 – 55 FGCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 9-4 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 69.9 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#158) | 1.2 (#144) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#157) | -0.19 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#174) | -0.34 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#131) | 0.518 (#140) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 35.8% | 11.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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