Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -215 M-OH +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | M-OH -0.2 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (+14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -1.3 (+6.7) | 131.4 (+10.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -1.3 (+6.7) | 131.7 (+10.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -0.9 (+7.1) | 129.7 (+12.3) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -1.9 (+6.1) | 130.9 (+11.1) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | M-OH 70 – 69 UVM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#268) | -1.1 (#174) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#259) | 0.83 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#250) | 0.89 (#118) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#257) | 0.530 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | M-OH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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