Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | GW -900 LAF +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GW +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GW -8.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -8.5 (+11.5) | 140.8 (+3.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -9.8 (+10.2) | 142.9 (+1.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -9.0 (+11.0) | 142.5 (+1.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GW -8.2 (+11.8) | 141.0 (+3.0) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#153) | -4.4 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#127) | -0.61 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#138) | -0.81 (#221) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#169) | 0.477 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.