Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -100000 CIT +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +52 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -27.3 (+24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (+9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -22.8 (+29.2) | 147.7 (+10.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -22.2 (+29.8) | 149.8 (+8.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -26.1 (+25.9) | 145.4 (+12.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -26.3 (+25.7) | 148.8 (+9.2) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 0-18 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-12 |
| Away | 3-7 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L24 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#58) | -13.3 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.75 (#26) | -4.19 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#28) | -5.74 (#363) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#39) | 0.289 (#364) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | CIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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