Betting Lines
| Spread | UNT -36.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNT +41 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | UNT -35.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.1 (+5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNT -35.2 (+5.8) | 124.4 (+0.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNT -26.3 (+14.7) | 127.2 (-2.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNT -23.8 (+17.2) | 127.6 (-2.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNT -33.6 (+7.4) | 127.3 (-2.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2023 | UNT 79 – 48 MVSU |
| Nov 27, 2020 | UNT 116 – 62 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 1-17 |
| Home | 17-1 | 2-9 |
| Away | 8-5 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 52.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 82.3 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#72) | -23.7 (#363) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#83) | -1.73 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#80) | -2.54 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#38) | 0.496 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 35.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 23.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 25.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 38.5% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 26.7% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 58.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.2% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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