Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -20000 CAN +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -22.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -17.2 (-5.2) | 143.1 (-11.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -20.2 (-8.2) | 142.9 (-10.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -19.8 (-7.8) | 141.6 (-9.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -19.7 (-7.7) | 142.4 (-10.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 3-17 |
| Home | 17-1 | 1-12 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 64.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 78.6 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#114) | -15.6 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#47) | -3.71 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#65) | -5.02 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#62) | 0.356 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 27.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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