Betting Lines
| Spread | NEV -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LMU +110 NEV -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LMU +12 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | NEV -1.4 (+13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-34.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LMU -0.5 (+11.5) | 147.5 (-31.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LMU -0.1 (+11.9) | 144.1 (-28.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LMU -1.1 (+10.9) | 145.7 (-29.7) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LMU -0.5 (+11.5) | 145.5 (-29.5) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | LMU 68 – 64 NEV |
| Dec 3, 2023 | NEV 73 – 59 LMU |
| Dec 19, 2021 | NEV 68 – 63 LMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LMU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-12 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#127) | 9.9 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#126) | 2.72 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#138) | 3.55 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#131) | 0.679 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LMU | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 38.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 41.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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