Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -250 ALST +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +17 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -4.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -3.3 (+13.7) | 147.5 (-22.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -2.6 (+14.4) | 146.0 (-21.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -3.1 (+13.9) | 148.2 (-23.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -2.4 (+14.6) | 148.7 (-23.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 8-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#156) | -4.1 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.00 (#173) | -0.62 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#164) | -1.37 (#262) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#166) | 0.476 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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