Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | COLG -213 UVM +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +1 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | COLG -8.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -7.5 (-8.5) | 142.7 (+2.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -5.5 (-6.5) | 140.5 (+4.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -6.4 (-7.4) | 145.4 (-0.4) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -6.8 (-7.8) | 145.4 (-0.4) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | COLG 65 – 60 UVM |
| Dec 9, 2023 | COLG 77 – 71 UVM |
| Dec 22, 2021 | UVM 78 – 68 COLG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 14-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 11-4 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#124) | -0.6 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#163) | -0.05 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#149) | -0.01 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#160) | 0.481 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 41.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 19.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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