Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | ALST -240 DSU +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DSU +3 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | ALST -5.1 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -2.3 (-5.3) | 149.4 (+13.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -2.8 (-5.8) | 150.1 (+12.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -2.5 (-5.5) | 151.1 (+11.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -2.5 (-5.5) | 148.5 (+14.5) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALST | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 16-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-6 |
| Home | 8-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 78.6 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#261) | -10.3 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#251) | -1.05 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#267) | -1.61 (#276) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#259) | 0.448 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALST | DSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 43.0% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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