Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -500 PUR +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +18 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -14.0 (+4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -11.3 (+6.7) | 147.4 (+8.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -11.5 (+6.5) | 150.1 (+5.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -12.2 (+5.8) | 150.2 (+5.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -11.6 (+6.4) | 146.7 (+9.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | PUR 88 – 60 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 27.8 (#1) | 13.8 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#3) | 2.61 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.80 (#4) | 3.65 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.710 (#2) | 0.669 (#8) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 40.1% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 2.10 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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