Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | OSU +290 UK -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OSU +20 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UK -5.5 (+25.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.7 (-12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -5.6 (+25.6) | 160.4 (-10.4) | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -4.2 (+24.2) | 158.3 (-8.3) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -4.6 (+24.6) | 162.1 (-12.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UK -4.1 (+24.1) | 160.9 (-10.9) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#26) | 20.0 (#8) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#73) | 3.38 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#58) | 4.61 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#65) | 0.642 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 44.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 2.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 57.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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