Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -620 BC +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +25 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -3.3 (+21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -1.2 (+23.8) | 137.1 (-2.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -2.2 (+22.8) | 140.6 (-5.6) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-8 |
| Away | 7-3 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#134) | -2.9 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#114) | 0.31 (#40) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#80) | 0.38 (#105) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.7% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 51.7% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 66.4% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 40.0% | 37.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 40.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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