Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | FRES -450 SAC +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +6 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -7.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-20.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -4.9 (-10.9) | 133.8 (-21.8) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -8.7 (-14.7) | 133.5 (-21.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -5.2 (-11.2) | 137.2 (-25.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -5.5 (-11.5) | 136.7 (-24.7) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | FRES 64 – 57 SAC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#154) | -1.5 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#259) | 0.00 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#203) | -0.27 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#264) | 0.533 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.7% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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