Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MD -1000 SYR +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +27 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MD -18.7 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -15.2 (+11.8) | 153.3 (-6.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -12.4 (+14.6) | 152.2 (-5.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -17.1 (+9.9) | 155.9 (-8.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -16.8 (+10.2) | 154.2 (-7.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 17-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 77.8 |
| Massey | 21.6 (#5) | 2.9 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#54) | 0.13 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#49) | 0.47 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#86) | 0.529 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | SYR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.72 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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