Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | JOES -145 VT +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +20 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -3.7 (+16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -3.5 (+16.5) | 136.3 (+7.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -1.9 (+18.1) | 138.2 (+5.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -2.6 (+17.4) | 138.1 (+5.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -3.0 (+17.0) | 139.1 (+4.9) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2025 | VT 94 – 59 JOES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-5 | 8-9 |
| Away | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#105) | -0.0 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#133) | -0.50 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#141) | -0.38 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#120) | 0.471 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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