Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SIU +135 HPU -160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +13 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -2.3 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+28.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -2.2 (-15.2) | 141.9 (+33.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -2.2 (-15.2) | 143.6 (+31.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -1.4 (-14.4) | 142.4 (+32.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -1.7 (-14.7) | 140.9 (+34.1) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | SIU 86 – 84 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SIU | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 14-2 |
| Home | 7-7 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#196) | 0.3 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#179) | 0.64 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#163) | 0.55 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#126) | 0.512 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SIU | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 33.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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