Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TLSA +45 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | TLSA -18.6 (+26.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -14.3 (+30.7) | 134.0 (+7.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -17.9 (+27.1) | 137.3 (+3.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -18.1 (+26.9) | 132.5 (+8.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -13.9 (+31.1) | 135.0 (+6.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2023 | TLSA 79 – 50 MVSU |
| Dec 17, 2022 | TLSA 66 – 51 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 1-17 |
| Home | 8-9 | 2-9 |
| Away | 3-8 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 52.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 82.3 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#322) | -24.2 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#312) | -1.83 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#295) | -2.66 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#334) | 0.487 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.1% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.4% | 23.6% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 24.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.9% | 38.3% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 27.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 61.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 58.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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