Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +53 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -21.1 (+31.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (-18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -18.7 (+34.3) | 150.0 (-15.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARIZ -21.9 (+31.1) | 149.4 (-14.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -21.0 (+32.0) | 148.7 (-13.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -20.0 (+33.0) | 150.3 (-15.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#18) | -0.3 (#168) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#87) | -0.33 (#201) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#68) | -0.34 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#94) | 0.518 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 42.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 40.7% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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