Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU -170 KENN +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +24 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -2.5 (+21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -4.0 (+20.0) | 147.7 (+6.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -2.7 (+21.3) | 147.1 (+6.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -3.5 (+20.5) | 147.1 (+6.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -3.8 (+20.2) | 150.0 (+4.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#209) | -0.9 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#244) | 0.56 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#245) | 0.48 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#251) | 0.536 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | KENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 34.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 30.9% |
Game Analysis
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